Rare Book Monthly

Articles - July - 2006 Issue

For Printed Materials: The Probability of Appearance

Munsell's first book


The aggregate print runs of these 64 items total 78,270 and average 1,223. The question next is how many of these specific items and how many copies of each are found in libraries, the assumed safest and most logical place for such material to be found. To find out I searched for each in the OCLC, the Online Computer Library Center database of books et al held by about 40,000 participating libraries. For 34 of the 64 items I find at least one example in the OCLC. For the other 30 no examples are identified. For the 34 with at least one copy a total of 324 copies are found. Therefore, for about half [47%] of Munsell's early production, there are no examples in the OCLC and for the other half an average of nine. For 14 of these items 10 or more copies are found representing 255 of the 324 examples identified in the OCLC. For the other 20 items there are only 69 copies. There is the distinct impression of feast and famine.

Munsell Material: 1834-40. An Analysis by Presence and Absence of Copies in the OCLC

Publications & Copies Present Absent Total * OCLC Copies
400 or less Copies 6 16 22 / 4,445 11
401 to 1000 17 13 30 / 22,375 190
1,001 to 4,000 9 0 9 / 19,450 74
4000+ 2 1 3 / 32,000 49

* Number of Munsell print jobs and total copies printed

The size of the print run and the number of pages provide some clues about survival rates. For the 64 items in Munselliana with specified print runs the total of all copies printed is 78,270 and the 34 items for which at least one example is present 53,585 or 68.5% of the total. Thirty items representing 31.5% that were printed in an aggregate quantity of 24,685 are not found in the OCLC. It's apparent some items survive in disproportionate numbers and others perish disproportionately. For the items that are found in the OCLC their holdings comprise 6/10ths of 1% of the original print runs and the average print run is 1,576. For the 30 items for which no examples are located in the OCLC the average print run is smaller: 823 but this doesn't explain why some items are held by many libraries and other items have not a single copy. Not surprisingly the number of copies printed is a complicated variable involving judgments, preferences and luck or lack of it.

Rare Book Monthly

  • Gonnelli
    Auction 51
    Antique prints, paintings and maps
    May 14st 2024
    Gonnelli: Leonard Bramer, The descent from the cross, 1634. Starting price 3200€
    Gonnelli: Gustav Hjalmar de Morner Karel, Rome’s Carnival, 1820. Starting price 1000€
    Gonnelli: Various Authors, Mater Dolorosa, 1700. Starting price 200€
    Gonnelli: Giovanni Battista Piranesi, Carcere Oscura, 1790. Starting price 180€
    Gonnelli: Jan Brueghel, Marine fauna view, 1620 ca. Starting price 28000€
    Gonnelli: Ippolito Scarsella, Mary and Christ with Sant Rocco and Arch-Angel Michele,1615. Starting price 8000€
    Gonnelli: Hans Sebald Beham, Adam and Eve, 1543. Starting price 600€
    Gonnelli: Francesco Burani, Baccanale, 1630. Starting Price 280€
    Gonnelli: Giuseppe Maria Mitelli, Plance from Ventiquattr’ore, 1675. Starting price 800€
    Gonnelli: Giuseppe Angeli, Livorno’s Plan, 1793. Starting price 240€
    Gonnelli: XIV Century Artist, Capital “N” letter, 1350 ca. Starting price 340€
  • Sotheby’s
    Modern First Editions
    Available for Immediate Purchase
    Sotheby’s, Available Now: Winston Churchill. The Second World War. Set of First-Edition Volumes. 6,000 USD
    Sotheby’s, Available Now: A.A. Milne, Ernest H. Shepard. A Collection of The Pooh Books. Set of First-Editions. 18,600 USD
    Sotheby’s, Available Now: Salvador Dalí, Lewis Carroll. Alice's Adventures in Wonderland. Finely Bound and Signed Limited Edition. 15,000 USD
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    Modern First Editions
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    Sotheby’s, Available Now: Ian Fleming. Live and Let Die. First Edition. 9,500 USD
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  • Australian Book Auctions
    Books, Maps, Modern Literature
    May 14 (US) / May 15 (Australia)
    Australian Book Auctions, May 14/15: ORWELL, George. ANIMAL FARM. London, Secker & Warburg, 1945. $8,000 to $12,000 AUD.
    Australian Book Auctions, May 14/15: MILNE, A.A. THE HOUSE AT POOH CORNER With decorations by Ernest H. Shepard. London, Methuen, 1928. Deluxe limited edition. $3,000 to $4,000 AUD.
    Australian Book Auctions, May 14/15: TWAIN, Mark. THE ADVENTURES OF HUCKLEBERRY FINN, (Tom Sawyer’s Comrade). New York, 1885. $1,000 to $1,500 AUD.
    Australian Book Auctions
    Books, Maps, Modern Literature
    May 14 (US) / May 15 (Australia)
    Australian Book Auctions, May 14/15: RAND, Ayn. ATLAS SHRUGGED. Random House, New York, 1957. First edition. $800 to $1,200 AUD.
    Australian Book Auctions, May 14/15: [BAUM, L. Frank]. PICTURES FROM THE WONDERFUL WIZARD OF OZ By W.W. Denslow… Chicago, [1903]. $400 to $800 AUD.
    Australian Book Auctions, May 14/15: HELLER, Joseph. CATCH-22. London, Jonathan Cape, 1962. $400 to $600 AUD.

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